2025 year-to-date special
As we come to the end of the final full week of the year, we have taken the opportunity to pause our usual weekly format and look at how markets have performed year-to-date.
🎄🎄Wishing you a very Merry Christmas and a happy and prosperous New Year🎄🎄
2025 Year in Review: Strong Equity Returns and Record Gold Performance in the Face of Trade Tensions and Cooling Inflation.
Year to date @ 15:00 pm – Friday 19th December – London.
Markets:
- FTSE 100 rose 21.8% this year to 9,880.55, driven by strong performance in energy and financials.
- S&P 500 rose 13.2% this year to 6,828.86, driven by sustained technology earnings.
- Nasdaq Composite rose 24.4% this year to 23,239.87, driven by intense demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure.
- Euro Stoxx 50 rose 15.9% this year to 5,755.57, driven by a recovery in industrial exports.
Bonds:
- UK 10-year gilt yields rose 3 bps this year to 4.53%, reflecting persistent domestic inflation.
- US 10-year Treasury yields rose 22 bps this year to 4.16%, reflecting a resilient US labor market.
Commodities:
- Brent crude fell 21.8% this year to $60.28, pressured by rising global supply.
- Gold rose 64.7% this year to $4,331.89, as geopolitical tensions supported safe-haven demand.
- Copper rose 35.4% this year to $5.47, driven by mine supply constraints and electrification demand.
FX:
- GBP/USD rose 5.1% this year to 1.337, as interest rate differentials favoured the Pound.
- EUR/GBP fell 0.8% this year to 0.875, as the ECB maintained a more dovish stance than the BoE.
Macro:
- UK: Inflation ended November at 3.2%. The Bank of England cut rates to 3.75% in December.
- US: The Fed cut rates to 3.75% as CPI cooled to 2.7%, despite a brief government shutdown.
- Geopolitics: Trade sanctions and supply chain realignments remained the primary focus for global markets.
Companies:
- Alphabet Inc: Shares gained significantly as market capitalisation neared $4 trillion on AI strength.
- ASML Holding: Rose 29.2% YTD, supported by high demand for next-generation lithography.
- Astrazeneca: Reached record highs following positive oncology trial data.
What we will be keeping an eye on next week…
w/c 22nd December
- Macro: Thin holiday trading expected. UK Q3 GDP revisions on 22 December.
- Seasonal: 🎄🎄Logistics data confirms Santa’s sleigh remains on schedule for 24 December, benefiting from lower Brent crude fuel overheads but facing increased insurance premiums for flight paths over geopolitical hotspots 🎅🏻🎁
Markets move constantly and the numbers in this update will change. This is a snapshot only, pulled together from a range of sources, and is meant as a quick guide rather than a precise record. It’s not investment advice and shouldn’t be used to make trading or investment decisions. If you need more accurate or specific data over a defined period, please get in touch with a member of the team who will be happy to help.
Important Information
This article is for information only and does not constitute advice or recommendation and you should not make any investment decisions based on it. The views and opinions of this article are those of Casterbridge at the time of writing and may change without notice. Any opinions should not be viewed as indicating any guarantee of return from investments managed by Casterbridge nor as advice of any nature. It is important to remember that past performance and the value of an investment, and any income from it, may go down as well as up and the investor may not get back the original amount invested.