Gilt yields hit a 19 year high as oil and AI jitters rattle markets.
This week @ 15:38 pm Friday 9th October in London.
Markets:
- FTSE 100 fell 0.19% this week to 10,441.6, as rising gilt yields and oil prices weighed on banks and healthcare, while record highs for the energy sector limited the decline.
- S&P 500 rose 0.89% this week to 7,791.15, after posting its first close above 7,800 on Tuesday before retreating as Treasury yields climbed and a report on OpenAI’s revenue hit AI-linked stocks.
- Nasdaq Composite rose 0.43% this week to 27,306.95, recovering on Friday after Thursday’s biggest one-day fall since mid-August, triggered by a Financial Times report that OpenAI’s annualised revenue was around $50bn, well below the roughly $70bn previously reported.
- STOXX Europe 50 rose 0.19% this week to 5,308.21, with midweek losses on surging sovereign yields reversed on Friday as bond yields and crude prices eased.
Bonds:
- UK 10-year gilt yields rose 12.4bps this week to 5.45%, after touching 5.527% on Thursday, the highest since July 2007, as soaring oil prices sparked a global bond selloff.
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yields were flat this week, edging 0.91bps lower to 5.27%, as strong demand at the 10-year and 30-year auctions offset a midweek move to the highest levels since 2002.
Commodities:
- Brent crude rose 1.56% this week to $103.85/bbl, as Iran stepped up attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and Hurricane Isaias shut in around 63% of US Gulf of Mexico oil output, before easing on Friday after President Trump ruled out an attack on Iran before the 3rd November mid-terms.
- Gold rose 1.18% this week to $4,211.40/oz, recovering from a two-month low as the dollar and Treasury yields eased late in the week.
- Copper rose 2.31% this week to $6.70/lb, as Chinese buyers returned after the national holiday and demand indicators improved.
FX:
- GBP/USD was flat this week, edging 0.02% lower to 1.32405, after sterling neared three-month lows midweek as higher oil prices pushed gilt yields to multi-year highs.
- GBP/EUR rose 0.31% this week to 1.1803, with the pound touching a one-year high against the euro on Wednesday as French fiscal concerns weighed on the single currency.
Macro
- US: Minutes from September’s Federal Reserve meeting, at which rates were raised by 25bps, showed most officials expect another hike by year-end. Governor Waller said further hikes are likely needed, though not necessarily at consecutive meetings.
- US: The ISM Services PMI eased to 54.9 in September (August: 55.4), while the prices index rose to 74.0. Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000.
- Eurozone: Accounts of the ECB’s September rate hike carried a hawkish tilt, with further decisions to remain data dependent.
- OPEC+ held November production targets unchanged. The US sanctioned 17 vessels carrying Iranian crude and petrochemicals, and Germany announced a release of up to 15 million barrels of oil and petroleum products from reserves.
Company news:
- Shell said third-quarter refining margins are set to reach a record $42/bbl (Q2: $24/bbl) and raised integrated gas production guidance to 740,000 to 780,000 boe/d, helped by the ARC Resources acquisition. Full results are due 29 October.
- HSBC is planning deep job cuts across its UK wealth management business as part of a push to integrate AI, according to the Financial Times.
- NVIDIA fell 2.9% and Microsoft 1.35% on Thursday following the OpenAI revenue report.
What we will be keeping an eye on next week…
w/c 12th October 2026
- Monday 12 October: US bond market closed for Columbus Day.
- Tuesday 13 October: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo open the US Q3 earnings season.
- Wednesday 14 October: US CPI (September) and the Fed’s Beige Book.
- Thursday 15 October: UK GDP (August), US PPI and retail sales (September).
Enjoy the weekend
Markets move constantly and the numbers in this update will change. This is a snapshot only, pulled together from a range of sources, and is meant as a quick guide rather than a precise record. It’s not investment advice and shouldn’t be used to make trading or investment decisions. If you need more accurate or specific data over a defined period, please get in touch with a member of the team who will be happy to help.
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