Oil surges this week as Iran ceasefire collapses, but tech rally keeps Wall Street afloat.
This week @ 15:21 Friday 10th July in London.
Markets:
- FTSE 100 fell 1.66% this week to 10,502, as President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire over and a sharp fall in AstraZeneca following failed drug trial results compounded losses from the broader Middle East driven sell-off.
- S&P 500 rose 0.81% this week to 7,544, as renewed optimism around AI infrastructure spending offset concerns over the reignited Iran conflict.
- Nasdaq Composite rose 1.49% this week to 26,217, led by strength in chipmakers and AI-related names after Micron confirmed a $250bn US investment plan.
- Euro Stoxx 50 fell 1.84% this week to 5,378, as European equities tracked the global sell-off triggered by the US revoking Iran’s oil export waiver and renewed regional strikes.
Bonds:
- UK 10-year gilt yields rose 9.6bps this week to 4.88%, as the reignited conflict pushed oil higher and reinforced expectations for a Bank of England rate hike.
- US 10-year Treasury yields rose 6.4bps this week to 4.55%, as the same oil-driven inflation concerns tempered hopes the Fed would ease policy despite a soft June jobs report.
Commodities:
- Brent crude rose 5.63% this week to $76.18/bbl, as the US revoked Iran’s oil export waiver and renewed strikes on Iranian targets threatened shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Gold was little changed this week at $4,110/oz, as a firmer dollar and rising Treasury yields offset renewed safe-haven demand from the Middle East escalation.
- Copper rose 1.72% this week to $6.28/lb, supported by a partial oil price pullback and ongoing supply constraints linked to Middle East sulphuric acid shortages.
FX:
- GBP/USD rose 0.47% this week to 1.3411, as a weaker-than-expected US jobs report and rising Bank of England rate hike bets supported sterling.
- GBP/EUR rose 0.52% this week to 1.1735, with sterling’s yield advantage over the euro continuing to underpin the pair.
Macro
- US non-farm payrolls for June rose by just 57,000, well below consensus, cutting market odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike.
- Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting showed a divided committee, with several members flagging concerns over persistent inflation even as they held rates steady.
Company news:
- AstraZeneca fell around 9% after its heart drug Wainua, developed with Ionis Pharmaceuticals, failed to meet its primary goal in a late-stage trial.
- Shell issued a second-quarter trading update flagging significantly higher gas trading profits from Middle East linked volatility, alongside a $1bn disposal of its South African downstream business to ADNOC Distribution.
- Microsoft confirmed further job cuts, reducing headcount by around 4,800 roles, as the group continues to reallocate spending toward AI infrastructure.
What we will be keeping an eye on next week…
w/c 13th July 2026
- Continued developments in the Iran conflict and their impact on oil prices and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
- UK GDP and trade data.
- The start of US bank earnings season, including JPMorgan.
Enjoy the weekend, and stay cool.
Markets move constantly and the numbers in this update will change. This is a snapshot only, pulled together from a range of sources, and is meant as a quick guide rather than a precise record. It’s not investment advice and shouldn’t be used to make trading or investment decisions. If you need more accurate or specific data over a defined period, please get in touch with a member of the team who will be happy to help.
Important Information
This article is for information only and does not constitute advice or recommendation and you should not make any investment decisions based on it. The views and opinions of this article are those of Casterbridge at the time of writing and may change without notice. Any opinions should not be viewed as indicating any guarantee of return from investments managed by Casterbridge nor as advice of any nature. It is important to remember that past performance and the value of an investment, and any income from it, may go down as well as up and the investor may not get back the original amount invested.