Markets consolidate despite steady earnings, amid central‑bank caution and geopolitical tensions
This week @ 15:27 – Friday 23rd January – London.
Markets:
- FTSE 100 fell 0.89% this week to 10,143.75, as UK data and European PMIs kept risk appetite subdued.
- S&P 500 fell 0.33% this week to 6,916.99, with mixed earnings and a quiet data slate ahead of next week’s Fed meeting.
- Nasdaq Composite was flat at -0.08% this week to 23,496.99, as large-cap tech steadied into the earnings heavy period.
- Euro Stoxx 50 fell 1.48% this week to 5,051.97, amid softer sentiment across continental Europe.
Bonds:
- UK 10-year gilt yields rose 9 bps this week to 4.50%, reflecting firmer domestic inflation and borrowing data.
- US 10-year Treasury yields fell 1 bp this week to 4.24%, reflecting cautious positioning before the FOMC and mixed macro signals.
Commodities:
- Brent crude rose 3.5% this week to 65.85, supported by shifting geopolitical headlines and supply chatter.
- Gold rose 5.8% this week to 4,952, as safe haven demand persisted ahead of key central bank decisions.
- Copper rose 0.3% this week to 5.92, driven by ongoing supply concerns.
Macro:
- UK CPI (Dec): Headline CPI rose to 3.4% y/y (from 3.2%); core CPI held at 3.2%, and services inflation edged up to 4.5%, underscoring persistent domestic price pressures for the BoE.
- UK public finances (Dec): Public sector net borrowing £11.6bn, below expectations; an improvement that eases near‑term funding pressure but leaves debt ratios elevated.
- UK Retail Sales (Dec): Volumes +0.4% m/m (after -0.1% in Nov); a modest year‑end lift that suggests consumer demand remained resilient into Christmas.
- Eurozone PMIs (Jan flash): Composite 51.5, Services 51.9, Manufacturing 49.4 (output ~50.2); growth stayed modest with services cooling and manufacturing near stagnation.
- ECB minutes (Dec meeting, published 22 Jan): Accounts pointed to rates “in a good place” with sticky services inflation arguing for an extended hold.
- US GDP (Q3 final): 4.4% q/q annualised; confirms solid momentum into year‑end without forcing a shift in near‑term Fed expectations.
- US labour market: Initial jobless claims 200k (week ended 17 Jan); still consistent with low layoffs ahead of the FOMC.
Companies:
- Rio Tinto reported stronger‑than‑expected quarterly production, with iron ore and copper volumes beating consensus, supporting the outlook for large‑cap miners.
What we will be keeping an eye on next week…
w/c 26th January
- Macro: FOMC decision 28 January. US personal income, spending and PCE inflation 29 January. Eurozone Q4 GDP and unemployment 30 January.
- Earnings: Busy US large-cap tech and financials reporting window.
Markets move constantly and the numbers in this update will change. This is a snapshot only, pulled together from a range of sources, and is meant as a quick guide rather than a precise record. It’s not investment advice and shouldn’t be used to make trading or investment decisions. If you need more accurate or specific data over a defined period, please get in touch with a member of the team who will be happy to help.
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