Uk economic growth was unexpectedly flat with sluggish growth reported in December and the core CPI rose slightly, indicating stable inflation.
This week @ 16:04pm – Friday 20th March – London.
Markets:
- FTSE 100 fell 3.14% to 9939.36, with rising energy prices and global equity weakness weighing on sentiment.
- S&P 500 fell 0.39% to 6606.49, as investors calibrated inflation risk against a cautious fed.
- Nasdaq Composite fell 1.33% to 21810.34, led lower by large-cap tech.
- Euro Stoxx 50 fell 3.70% to 4792.48, tracking broader European risk aversion.
Bonds
- UK 10‑year gilt yields rose 5.91% to 5.017, reflecting higher near‑term inflation risk from energy.
- US 10‑year Treasury yields rose 2.31% to 4.382, with duration steady into central bank guidance.
Commodities:
• Brent crude rose 5.85% to 109.17, supported by Middle East supply disruption.
• Gold fell 9.71% to 4570.29, as earlier safe‑haven bids unwound.
• Copper fell 6.70% to 5.371, on global growth concerns.
FX:
• GBP/USD rose 1.19% to 1.3382, on softer USD late in the week.
• EUR/GBP was +0.03% to 1.15885, little changed on relative rate expectations.
Macro:
United States
• Producer prices (Feb): Headline PPI +0.5% m/m; core PPI +0.8% m/m. This reinforced concerns that input‑cost pressures could re‑accelerate if energy stays elevated; it matters because sticky pipeline inflation can delay the pace of policy easing and keep real rates firmer for longer.
• Industrial production (Feb): +0.2% m/m with capacity utilisation 76.3%. Output resilience suggests growth isn’t rolling over; for investors it supports earnings breadth, while policymakers watch for demand that could entrench inflation.
• Housing: Existing home sales (Feb) up 1.7% to a 4.09m annualised pace; pending home sales (Feb) −0.8%. Sales stabilisation helps consumption via housing‑related outlays; for policy, housing is a key transmission channel for rates into the real economy.
Central banks
• Federal Reserve (18 March): Held the funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%; guidance and projections imply only a gradual easing path, with one cut pencilled for 2026. This is important because the path of policy rates anchors discount rates and risk premia across assets.
• Bank of England (19 March): Held 3.75% unanimously, citing energy‑driven inflation risks. This matters as a prolonged hold keeps UK borrowing costs elevated, influencing mortgage resets, corporate funding and domestic earnings.
Companies:
- NVIDIA (NVDA): Kicked off its weeklong GPU Technology Conference (GTC) on March 16, with CEO Jensen Huang announcing massive demand projections, estimating orders for its Blackwell and Vera Rubin AI systems to hit $1 trillion through 2027.
What we will be keeping an eye on next week…
w/c 23rd March 2026
- US consumer confidence: Indicates how willing households are to spend, shaping growth and inflation expectations for policymakers and markets.
- US new home sales: Signals housing‑demand strength and how effectively interest rates are influencing the real economy.
- UK CPI: The key inflation gauge that steers Bank of England policy and influences gilts, mortgages and sterling.
- UK retail sales: Shows the resilience of household demand, guiding expectations for growth and inflation pressure.
- Eurozone flash PMIs: Provide early insight into economic momentum, shaping ECB policy expectations and earnings sentiment.
- Japan CPI: Helps determine whether inflation is sticky enough to justify policy normalisation, affecting yen and global flows.
Markets move constantly and the numbers in this update will change. This is a snapshot only, pulled together from a range of sources, and is meant as a quick guide rather than a precise record. It’s not investment advice and shouldn’t be used to make trading or investment decisions. If you need more accurate or specific data over a defined period, please get in touch with a member of the team who will be happy to help.
Important Information
This article is for information only and does not constitute advice or recommendation and you should not make any investment decisions based on it. The views and opinions of this article are those of Casterbridge at the time of writing and may change without notice. Any opinions should not be viewed as indicating any guarantee of return from investments managed by Casterbridge nor as advice of any nature. It is important to remember that past performance and the value of an investment, and any income from it, may go down as well as up and the investor may not get back the original amount invested.