Oil remains above $100 as Iran tensions continue to rattle markets.
This week @ 15:23 – Friday 13th March – London.
Markets:
- FTSE 100 was flat this week at 10,286, as oil-driven inflation concerns weighed on sentiment but defensive and energy stocks provided support. UK GDP data released today showed the economy stalled in January (0.0% m/m vs 0.2% expected), adding to the cautious tone.
- S&P 500 fell 1.0% this week to 6,673, heading for its third consecutive losing week as surging oil prices raised concerns about inflation and margins. Energy stocks were the standout exception, rising sharply.
- Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7% this week to 22,222, with most technology names under pressure, though chip stocks outperformed following strong results from Oracle and TSMC.
- Euro Stoxx 50 was flat this week at 4,989, as European equities were broadly pulled in opposite directions by rising energy costs and relative shelter from direct Middle East exposure.
Bonds:
- UK 10-year gilt yields rose 16bps this week to 4.77%, reaching their highest level since September 2025, as surging energy prices reignited inflation concerns and caused markets to reassess Bank of England rate cut expectations.
- US 10-year Treasury yields rose 15bps this week to 4.29%, remaining elevated despite weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP (revised down to 0.7% annualised growth), as oil-driven inflation uncertainty kept the Fed on hold.
Commodities:
- Brent crude rose 8.1% this week to $100.23/bbl, breaking through the $100 level as Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei stated the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed as a tool to pressure the West. The IEA announced its largest ever strategic reserve release, helping oil ease slightly from intraday highs.
- Gold fell 1.6% this week to $5,074/oz, giving back recent gains as a partial recovery in risk appetite and dollar strength weighed on the metal.
- Copper was broadly flat this week at $5.80/lbs, with demand concerns offsetting supply-side uncertainty.
FX:
- GBP/USD fell 1.1% this week to 1.3265, as disappointing UK GDP data and the risk-off tone from the Middle East conflict weighed on sterling.
- GBP/EUR rose 0.3% this week to 1.1581, with the euro under its own pressure from energy import concerns across the continent.
Macro:
- UK GDP (January) stalled at 0.0% m/m, below the 0.2% forecast, with services flat and industrial output down. UK CPI eased to 3.0% in January, its lowest since March 2025, but the oil price surge this week is expected to reverse some of that progress.
- US Q4 GDP was revised sharply lower to 0.7% annualised growth, well below the 1.5% consensus. Services PMI came in at 54.8 for March, signalling resilience in the services sector despite macro headwinds.
- US initial jobless claims fell to 213,000 for the week ending 7 March, in line with estimates. University of Michigan consumer sentiment slipped to 55.5 in March, dampened by the Iran conflict.
- The US-Israel military campaign against Iran continued to dominate market sentiment. Iran kept the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed; the IEA launched an unprecedented 400 million barrel strategic reserve release in response. President Trump suggested the conflict could end “very soon,” providing brief relief mid-week.
Companies:
- Oracle reported strong Q3 results, with cloud infrastructure revenue exceeding expectations. Shares rose over 8% after results. Positive read-across for AI infrastructure names.
- Adobe reported in line with estimates but guidance disappointed. Generative AI tools including Firefly are cannibalising Adobe Stock revenue. Barclays downgraded the stock to equal weight.
- Shell shares reached a 52-week high this week as energy stocks globally surged on oil price gains.
What we will be keeping an eye on next week…
w/c 16th March 2026
- Bank of England MPC decision: Thursday 19 March. Markets currently pricing around 50% probability of a cut from 3.75%, though the oil price surge has introduced significant uncertainty.
- Federal Reserve FOMC decision: Wednesday 18 March. No cut expected; focus will be on the statement and any guidance on the pace of future easing given the energy shock.
- US PCE inflation (January): already released this week, adding to the data picture ahead of the FOMC.
Markets move constantly and the numbers in this update will change. This is a snapshot only, pulled together from a range of sources, and is meant as a quick guide rather than a precise record. It’s not investment advice and shouldn’t be used to make trading or investment decisions. If you need more accurate or specific data over a defined period, please get in touch with a member of the team who will be happy to help.
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