Oil tumbles on Iran deal hopes, lifting equities and capping a volatile week.
This week @ 15:18pm Friday 12th June in London.
Markets:
- FTSE 100 rose 0.70% to 10,440.54, recovering from early losses as US-Iran peace deal optimism drove a late-week rally; Friday’s April GDP data (-0.1% m/m, with services down 0.2%) added a cautious note but didn’t derail gains.
- S&P 500 rose 0.14% to 7,394.30, ending virtually flat as Thursday’s surge on Iran deal news offset early semiconductor weakness.
- Nasdaq Composite was flat at 25,711.65, with chip stocks selling off early before recovering sharply on Thursday’s risk-on move.
- Euro Stoxx 50 rose 1.44% to 5,263.77, with peace deal optimism outweighing Thursday’s ECB rate hike.
Bonds:
- UK 10-year gilt yields fell 3.9bps to 4.87%, as retreating oil eased near-term inflation expectations; weak UK GDP data added a modest dovish lean.
- US 10-year Treasury yields fell 5.4bps to 4.49%, reflecting lower oil-driven inflationary pressure; May CPI (+4.2% y/y, in line with consensus) left the Fed path unchanged.
Commodities:
- Brent crude fell 4.09% to $89.28/bbl, after Trump said Thursday that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be signed this weekend; Iran’s semi-official news agency indicated Tehran was likely to accept.
- Gold fell 3.54% to $4,210.60/oz, as deal hopes eroded safe-haven demand and persistent Fed rate-hike pricing – a legacy of May’s strong payrolls beat – continued to weigh.
- Copper rose 1.85% to $6.40/lb, with industrial metals supported by optimism that easing the Hormuz crisis would reduce the global energy drag on manufacturing demand.
FX:
- GBP/USD rose 0.60% to 1.3422, as risk appetite improved on ceasefire optimism and the US dollar softened.
- GBP/EUR was flat at 1.1585, with the ECB’s rate hike supporting the euro and broadly offsetting sterling’s dollar-driven gains.
Macro:
- US CPI (May, 10 June): +0.5% m/m; +4.2% y/y, in line. Energy prices (+3.9% m/m) drove the headline; core CPI remained contained at +2.9% y/y.
- ECB (11 June): hiked 25bps to 2.25% – its first increase since 2023 – citing Iran war inflation. Eurozone 2026 inflation forecast: 3.0%; GDP trimmed to 0.8%.
- UK GDP (April, 12 June): -0.1% m/m, driven by a 0.2% services contraction; ONS cited the Iran conflict’s energy cost impact.
- Geopolitical: Trump’s Thursday statement that a deal was imminent dominated the week. As of Friday, no formal agreement had been signed.
Company news:
- Rheinmetall officially launched its Rheinmetall ICEYE Space Solutions joint venture on 10 June — a space-based ISR business backed by a €1.7 billion Bundeswehr contract, with Finnish SAR satellite operator ICEYE as partner and production beginning Q3 2026.
What we will be keeping an eye on next week…
w/c 15th June 2026
- Federal Reserve FOMC (Wednesday 17 June): hold expected at 3.50–3.75%; the dot plot and press conference are the focus – new Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting.
- Bank of England MPC (Thursday 18 June): hold expected at 3.75%; vote split and language on rate hike risk will be closely read, with Tuesday’s May CPI directly informing the decision.
- UK CPI (May, Tuesday 16 June): first full reading under post-conflict energy pricing and the key BoE input the following morning.
Markets move constantly and the numbers in this update will change. This is a snapshot only, pulled together from a range of sources, and is meant as a quick guide rather than a precise record. It’s not investment advice and shouldn’t be used to make trading or investment decisions. If you need more accurate or specific data over a defined period, please get in touch with a member of the team who will be happy to help.
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