Pause, not peace….
This week @ 15:25pm Friday 10th April in London.
Markets
The dominant theme this week was the US-Iran ceasefire, announced by President Trump on Tuesday evening, which triggered a sharp relief rally across global markets on Wednesday.
- FTSE 100 rose 1.7% this week to 10,616, lifted by Wednesday’s ceasefire-driven rally, though energy and mining stocks partially retraced gains on Thursday as ceasefire doubts resurfaced.
- S&P 500 rose 3.7% this week to 6,825, with the index posting its best single session since April 2025 on Wednesday as risk appetite recovered sharply.
- Nasdaq Composite rose 4.7% this week to 22,900, with technology leading the relief rally after weeks of underperformance driven by energy-cost sensitivity concerns.
- Euro Stoxx 50 rose 3.1% this week to 5,122, with European bourses surging sharply on Wednesday, with Germany’s DAX posting its best daily gain since March 2022. NBC News
Bonds
- UK 10-year gilt yields rose approximately 3 basis points this week to 4.79%, reflecting continued caution over domestic inflation, with the Bank of England noting in its March minutes that CPI could reach up to 3.5% in Q3 2026 due to elevated energy costs.
- US 10-year Treasury yields were broadly flat this week at 4.31%, with a sharp mid-week drop on ceasefire news partly reversing as oil rebounded and uncertainty persisted.
Commodities
- Brent crude rose 1.5% this week to $110.71/bbl, with a dramatic intra-week swing: oil fell around 13% on Wednesday following the ceasefire announcement, before recovering as Iran continued to restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and ceasefire durability remained in doubt.
- Gold rose 2.5% this week to $4,797/ozt, as investors continued to hold safe-haven positions despite the equity relief rally, with persistent uncertainty over the durability of the ceasefire keeping hedges in place.
- Copper rose 5.4% this week to $5.887/lb, recovering alongside broader risk assets as the ceasefire raised hopes of easing supply-chain disruptions.
FX
- GBP/USD rose 1.6% this week to 1.3439, as the dollar weakened on reduced geopolitical risk premium and improved global risk sentiment.
- GBP/EUR was broadly flat, rising just 0.1% to 1.1475, with sterling and the euro moving largely in tandem.
Macro
- US non-farm payrolls for March came in at 178,000, well ahead of the consensus estimate of approximately 60,000, with the unemployment rate edging down to 4.3%.
- Despite the strong jobs number, markets continue to price virtually no probability of a Fed rate cut at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, with elevated energy prices and above-target inflation keeping the central bank on hold.
- The Bank of England held Bank Rate steady at its March meeting. The MPC noted that CPI could rise to as much as 3.5% in Q3 2026 as a result of higher energy prices, and flagged significant caution over second-round inflationary effects. The next MPC decision is due 30th April.
- The US-Iran two-week ceasefire was announced late Tuesday, conditional on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The arrangement remains fragile: Iran’s parliamentary speaker accused the US of ceasefire violations, Israel continued strikes in Lebanon, and the strait remains largely blocked to commercial shipping.
Companies
- Astrazeneca: Announced an ambition to reach $80bn in total revenue by 2030 at its recent investor presentation, supported by several positive Phase III trial readouts.
- Alphabet Inc: Benefited from the broader 4.5% rally in the Nasdaq as growth expectations for the sector improved.
What we will be keeping an eye on next week…
w/c 13th April 2026
- Goldman Sachs reports Monday, followed by JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup on Tuesday, formally launching a Q1 earnings season in which S&P 500 profits are expected to grow over 14% year-on-year.
- Netflix reports Thursday after the close, while TSMC and ASML deliver results that will gauge ongoing AI-driven semiconductor demand.
- US March CPI (key read for Fed trajectory ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC meeting); Rio Tinto 2025 final dividend paid.
- Ongoing: Developments in US-Iran ceasefire negotiations and progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz will remain the dominant market driver.
Markets move constantly and the numbers in this update will change. This is a snapshot only, pulled together from a range of sources, and is meant as a quick guide rather than a precise record. It’s not investment advice and shouldn’t be used to make trading or investment decisions. If you need more accurate or specific data over a defined period, please get in touch with a member of the team who will be happy to help.
Important Information
This article is for information only and does not constitute advice or recommendation and you should not make any investment decisions based on it. The views and opinions of this article are those of Casterbridge at the time of writing and may change without notice. Any opinions should not be viewed as indicating any guarantee of return from investments managed by Casterbridge nor as advice of any nature. It is important to remember that past performance and the value of an investment, and any income from it, may go down as well as up and the investor may not get back the original amount invested.