As I’m sure you you know, it’s a short week this week, so that means you get to enjoy our weekly roundup a day early. Have a Great Easter, all the best to you and yours from the team at Casterbridge.
Oil surges past $108 as Middle East tensions escalate.
This week @ 15:30pm Thursday 2nd April in London.
Markets:
- FTSE 100 rose 3.7% this week to 10,341, as a powerful mid-week rally on ceasefire hopes more than offset Thursday’s pullback when Trump’s escalatory rhetoric reignited geopolitical anxiety.
- S&P 500 rose 0.7% this week to 6,520, as a 2.9% Tuesday surge on withdrawal hopes was largely surrendered on Thursday after the President’s prime-time address signalled intensified military operations against Iran.
- Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8% this week to 21,580, as semiconductor and AI names led a mid-week rally before technology stocks reversed sharply on Thursday amid renewed escalation fears.
- Euro Stoxx 50 posted a strong weekly gain to 5,733, recording its largest one-day rise since April 2025 on Wednesday before Thursday’s risk-off reversal trimmed gains across European bourses.
Bonds
- UK 10-year gilt yield rose approximately 5.7bps on Thursday to 4.90%, edging toward its highest level since July 2008 as surging energy costs forced markets to price in two Bank of England rate hikes by year-end.
- US 10-year Treasury yield fell roughly 7bps on the week to around 4.38%, as a sharp mid-week rally on de-escalation hopes more than offset Thursday’s selloff following Trump’s hawkish address.
Commodities:
- Brent crude surged approximately 8% on Thursday to $109.50/bbl, as Trump’s vow to strike Iranian energy infrastructure compounded the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption that has lifted prices 70% since late February.
- Gold rose approximately 6% to approximately $4,758/oz, driven by safe-haven demand and a softer dollar.
- Copper fell approximately 1.6% this week to around $12,275/mt, as fears that a prolonged energy shock would weigh on global industrial activity outweighed resilient Chinese import demand.
FX:
- GBP/USD fell to 1.3186 this week, as renewed dollar safe-haven demand following Trump’s escalatory speech and the UK’s acute vulnerability to imported energy costs weighed heavily on sterling.
- GBP/EUR fell approximately 0.9% this week to 1.1465, as the UK’s deteriorating stagflationary outlook and a notably hawkish ECB tone eroded sterling’s yield advantage over the euro.
Macro:
- Iran conflict dominated. Trump’s suggestion of a two-to-three-week exit on Wednesday drove a broad relief rally; Thursday’s pledge of intensified strikes reversed it sharply.
- US ADP private payrolls and Manufacturing PMI for March were released this week, providing early Q1 data.
- The OECD cut its 2026 UK growth forecast from 1.2% to 0.7%, citing the Iran-driven energy shock.
Companies:
- Nike shares plunged more than 15% on Wednesday despite reporting better-than-expected Q3, as fourth-quarter sales fell well short of the $11.2 billion market estimate amid persistent weakness in China.
- Rio Tinto: Shares rose approximately 7% on the week, recovering from March lows as mid-week ceasefire optimism lifted mining sector sentiment.
- Shell: Gained on the week, supported by elevated oil prices amid the ongoing Iran conflict.
- Eli Lilly received FDA approval for its obesity pill, opening a new competitive front against Novo Nordisk in the multibillion-dollar weight-loss drug market.
What we will be keeping an eye on next week…
w/c 6th April 2026
- The US March CPI print will be closely scrutinised for evidence that surging energy costs are feeding into broader price pressures.
- The Bank of England and European Central Bank meetings on April 30 will test hawkish market pricing, with rate futures implying two BoE hikes and up to three ECB hikes by year-end.
- Any weekend geopolitical developments in the US-Iran conflict will meet thin liquidity from the Easter holiday closure, amplifying potential price dislocations when markets reopen.
Markets move constantly and the numbers in this update will change. This is a snapshot only, pulled together from a range of sources, and is meant as a quick guide rather than a precise record. It’s not investment advice and shouldn’t be used to make trading or investment decisions. If you need more accurate or specific data over a defined period, please get in touch with a member of the team who will be happy to help.
Important Information
This article is for information only and does not constitute advice or recommendation and you should not make any investment decisions based on it. The views and opinions of this article are those of Casterbridge at the time of writing and may change without notice. Any opinions should not be viewed as indicating any guarantee of return from investments managed by Casterbridge nor as advice of any nature. It is important to remember that past performance and the value of an investment, and any income from it, may go down as well as up and the investor may not get back the original amount invested.