Ceasefire hope fades, oil surges: mixed markets and rising inflation keep policy makers on edge.
This week @ 15:40pm Friday 24th April in London.
Markets:
- FTSE 100 fell 2.44% this week to 10,407, weighed down by energy-cost pressures on consumer-facing stocks and broadly negative sentiment across European markets.
- S&P 500 was flat, falling 0.25% to 7,108, as geopolitical uncertainty and mixed earnings guidance offset solid technology sector momentum.
- Nasdaq Composite rose 0.51% to 24,593, supported by renewed optimism ahead of the Magnificent Seven earnings reports due next week.
- Euro Stoxx 50 fell 2.32% to 5,057, as flash PMI data confirmed the eurozone services sector entered contraction territory for the first time since the war began.
Bonds:
- UK 10-year gilt yields rose 30.5 basis points this week to 4.97%, reflecting accelerating UK input cost inflation confirmed by April flash PMI data, with 69% of UK manufacturers reporting higher purchasing costs.
- US 10-year Treasury yields rose 8.7 basis points to 4.33%, as stronger-than-expected US manufacturing PMI data and ongoing inflation concerns limited appetite for duration.
Commodities:
- Brent crude rose 16.18% this week to $105, as Iran ceasefire talks stalled and Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline capacity remained at maximum utilisation in place of Strait of Hormuz routes.
- Gold fell 3.13% to $4,727/oz, with profit-taking and liquidations from Middle Eastern holders outweighing safe-haven demand.
- Copper fell 1.35% to $6.03/lb, as demand concerns from a slowing eurozone services sector weighed on industrial metals.
FX:
- GBP/USD fell 0.25% to 1.3483, with the dollar recovering modest ground ahead of next week’s FOMC decision and key US data releases.
- EUR/GBP: sterling strengthened 0.42% against the euro to 1.1537, reflecting the UK’s relative PMI outperformance versus the eurozone.
Macro:
- UK Flash PMIs published Thursday. The UK composite PMI rose to 52.0 (March: 50.3), a two-month high, beating expectations, with manufacturing at a 47-month high of 53.6.
- US Flash PMIs The US composite PMI rose to 52.0 (March: 50.3), with manufacturing at a 47-month high of 54.0, though services remained subdued at 51.3.
- Eurozone Flash PMIs In sharp contrast, the eurozone composite PMI fell to 48.6, with services collapsing to 47.4 as energy costs hit consumer-facing businesses hard.
- Iran ceasefire negotiations remain the dominant geopolitical driver. The US has set conditions for talks; Iran has been invited to discussions in Pakistan but had not confirmed attendance as of Friday.
- IMF April 2026 World Economic Outlook, published this week, revised down global growth forecasts citing the Middle East conflict as a material drag, with particular impact on energy-importing advanced economies.
Companies:
- No notable updates from our holdings or target list this week.
What we will be keeping an eye on next week…
w/c 27th April 2026
- 28th April: Coca-Cola Q1 2026 results (pre-market). Coca-Cola’s volume trends and margin commentary will be an early read on whether the energy-driven cost-of-living squeeze is beginning to erode consumer spending on everyday branded goods.
- 29th April: Alphabet Q1 2026 results (after close). Google Cloud revenue will test whether enterprise AI adoption is generating durable, recurring spend, while advertising revenue will act as a live proxy for the health of corporate marketing budgets and broader digital economy demand.
- 29th April: Microsoft Q3 FY2026 results (after close). As the market’s primary benchmark for AI infrastructure monetisation, Azure growth (guided at 37–38%) and Copilot enterprise adoption figures will be the most closely watched data points of the season for assessing whether the AI capex cycle is generating adequate returns.
- 29thApril: FOMC rate decision. A hold is widely expected, but Chair Powell’s language on the inflation and growth outlook will be critical for bond markets and equity valuations.
- 30th April: US core PCE inflation (March). The Fed’s preferred inflation measure carries more weight than usual this month, with a higher-than-expected reading likely to push back rate cut expectations further and add to pressure on the long end of the Treasury curve.
- 30th April: Bank of England rate decision. With UK input cost inflation accelerating at its fastest pace in nearly three and a half years per this week’s flash PMI, the MPC’s vote split and inflation forecasts will signal whether rate cuts in 2026 remain on the table or are being pushed back materially.
Markets move constantly and the numbers in this update will change. This is a snapshot only, pulled together from a range of sources, and is meant as a quick guide rather than a precise record. It’s not investment advice and shouldn’t be used to make trading or investment decisions. If you need more accurate or specific data over a defined period, please get in touch with a member of the team who will be happy to help.
Important Information
This article is for information only and does not constitute advice or recommendation and you should not make any investment decisions based on it. The views and opinions of this article are those of Casterbridge at the time of writing and may change without notice. Any opinions should not be viewed as indicating any guarantee of return from investments managed by Casterbridge nor as advice of any nature. It is important to remember that past performance and the value of an investment, and any income from it, may go down as well as up and the investor may not get back the original amount invested.